Forecasting Model Predicts When Each State Will Likely Hit Coronavirus Peak, Gives Possible Total Deaths

The University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) created a forecasting model that projects future coronavirus cases and deaths in the United States overall, as well as in individual states.

NPR reported that IHME “produced projections very similar” to the model that White House officials were using for their projections.

IHME’s modelers said that they did not take into account President Donald Trump’s social distancing guidelines when they built their model, but they did take into account which each individual state did.

“Ultimately, these forecasts were developed to provide hospitals, health care workers, policymakers, and the public with crucial information about what demands COVID-19 may place on hospital capacity and resources, so that they could begin to plan,” IHME wrote.

The model predicts the times of peak hospital resource usage, peak number of deaths per day, and total estimated deaths by August 4, 2020 for the U.S. and for each state.

The following are the projections from the model as of April 4:

• United States:
  • Peak hospital resource use: April 15, 2020.
  • Peak deaths per day: 2,644 deaths on April 16, 2020.
  • Total deaths by August 4, 2020: 93,531 deaths.
• Alabama:
  • Peak hospital resource use: April 17, 2020.
  • Peak deaths per day: 303 deaths on April 19, 2020.
  • Total deaths by August 4, 2020: 5,515 deaths.
• Alaska:
  • Peak hospital resource use: April 15, 2020.
  • Peak deaths per day: 5 deaths on April 14, 2020.
  • Total deaths by August 4, 2020: 148 deaths.
• Arizona:
  • Peak hospital resource use: April 27, 2020.
  • Peak deaths per day: 40 deaths on April 26, 2020.
  • Total deaths by August 4, 2020: 1,378 deaths.
• Arkansas
  • Peak hospital resource use: April 26, 2020.
  • Peak deaths per day: 21 deaths on April 26, 2020.
  • Total deaths by August 4, 2020: 619 deaths.
• California
  • Peak hospital resource use: April 26, 2020.
  • Peak deaths per day: 119 deaths on April 26, 2020.
  • Total deaths by August 4, 2020: 5,068 deaths.
• Colorado:
  • Peak hospital resource use: April 17, 2020.
  • Peak deaths per day: 85 deaths on April 18, 2020.
  • Total deaths by August 4, 2020: 2,154 deaths.
• Connecticut:
  • Peak hospital resource use: April 15, 2020.
  • Peak deaths per day: 43 deaths on April 15, 2020.
  • Total deaths by August 4, 2020: 1,144 deaths.
• Delaware:
  • Peak hospital resource use: April 11, 2020.
  • Peak deaths per day: 9 deaths on April 11, 2020.
  • Total deaths by August 4, 2020: 166 deaths.
• District of Columbia:
  • Peak hospital resource use: April 15, 2020.
  • Peak deaths per day: 9 deaths on April 13, 2020.
  • Total deaths by August 4, 2020: 218 deaths.
• Florida:
  • Peak hospital resource use: May 3, 2020.
  • Peak deaths per day: 175 deaths on May 4, 2020.
  • Total deaths by August 4, 2020: 6,897 deaths.
• Georgia:
  • Peak hospital resource use: April 24, 2020.
  • Peak deaths per day: 96 deaths on April 25, 2020.
  • Total deaths by August 4, 2020: 3,232 deaths.
• Hawaii:
  • Peak hospital resource use: May 3, 2020.
  • Peak deaths per day: 12 deaths on May 1, 2020.
  • Total deaths by August 4, 2020: 372 deaths.
• Idaho:
  • Peak hospital resource use: April 26, 2020.
  • Peak deaths per day: 12 deaths on April 26, 2020.
  • Total deaths by August 4, 2020: 397 deaths.
• Illinois:
  • Peak hospital resource use: April 20, 2020.
  • Peak deaths per day: 109 deaths on April 20, 2020.
  • Total deaths by August 4, 2020: 3,386 deaths.
• Indiana:
  • Peak hospital resource use: April 19, 2020.
  • Peak deaths per day: 35 deaths on April 20, 2020.
  • Total deaths by August 4, 2020: 1,160 deaths.
• Iowa:
  • Peak hospital resource use: May 1, 2020.
  • Peak deaths per day: 49 deaths on May 1, 2020.
  • Total deaths by August 4, 2020: 1,488 deaths.
• Kansas:
  • Peak hospital resource use: April 28, 2020.
  • Peak deaths per day: 18 deaths on April 26, 2020.
  • Total deaths by August 4, 2020: 640 deaths.
• Kentucky:
  • Peak hospital resource use: May 16, 2020.
  • Peak deaths per day: 15 deaths on May 13, 2020.
  • Total deaths by August 4, 2020: 821 deaths.
• Louisiana:
  • Peak hospital resource use: April 9, 2020.
  • Peak deaths per day: 76 deaths on April 10, 2020.
  • Total deaths by August 4, 2020: 1,834
• Maine:
  • Peak hospital resource use: April 17, 2020.
  • Peak deaths per day: 12 deaths on April 15, 2020.
  • Total deaths by August 4, 2020: 364 deaths.
• Maryland:
  • Peak hospital resource use: April 29, 2020.
  • Peak deaths per day: 53 deaths on April 28, 2020.
  • Total deaths by August 4, 2020: 1,766 deaths.
• Massachusetts:
  • Peak hospital resource use: April 16, 2020.
  • Peak deaths per day: 100 deaths on April 17, 2020.
  • Total deaths by August 4, 2020: 2,381 deaths.
• Michigan:
  • Peak hospital resource use: April 9, 2020.
  • Peak deaths per day: 173 deaths on April 11, 2020.
  • Total deaths by August 4, 2020: 3,169 deaths.
• Minnesota:
  • Peak hospital resource use: April 22, 2020.
  • Peak deaths per day: 36 deaths on April 21, 2020.
  • Total deaths by August 4, 2020: 932 deaths.
• Mississippi:
  • Peak hospital resource use: April 21, 2020.
  • Peak deaths per day: 34 deaths on April 20, 2020.
  • Total deaths by August 4, 2020: 918 deaths.
• Missouri:
  • Peak hospital resource use: May 21, 2020.
  • Peak deaths per day: 22 deaths on May 18, 2020.
  • Total deaths by August 4, 2020: 1,290 deaths.
• Montana:
  • Peak hospital resource use: April 26, 2020.
  • Peak deaths per day: 9 deaths on April 25, 2020.
  • Total deaths by August 4, 2020: 266 deaths.
• Nebraska:
  • Peak hospital resource use: April 23, 2020.
  • Peak deaths per day: 15 deaths on April 23, 2020.
  • Total deaths by August 4, 2020: 447 deaths.
• Nevada:
  • Peak hospital resource use: April 20, 2020.
  • Peak deaths per day: 26 deaths on April 18, 2020.
  • Total deaths by August 4, 2020: 799 deaths.
• New Hampshire:
  • Peak hospital resource use: April 17, 2020.
  • Peak deaths per day: 11 deaths on April 15, 2020.
  • Total deaths by August 4, 2020: 331 deaths.
• New Jersey:
  • Peak hospital resource use: April 8, 2020.
  • Peak deaths per day: 104 deaths on April 9, 2020.
  • Total deaths by August 4, 2020: 2,117 deaths.
• New Mexico:
  • Peak hospital resource use: April 24, 2020.
  • Peak deaths per day: 17 deaths on April 22, 2020.
  • Total deaths by August 4, 2020: 525 deaths.
• New York:
  • Peak hospital resource use: April 9, 2020.
  • Peak deaths per day: 855 deaths on April 10, 2020.
  • Total deaths by August 4, 2020: 16,261 deaths.
• North Carolina:
  • Peak hospital resource use: April 26, 2020.
  • Peak deaths per day: 51 deaths on April 27, 2020.
  • Total deaths by August 4, 2020: 1,534 deaths.
• North Dakota:
  • Peak hospital resource use: April 21, 2020.
  • Peak deaths per day: 6 deaths on April 20, 2020.
  • Total deaths by August 4, 2020: 169 deaths.
• Ohio:
  • Peak hospital resource use: April 19, 2020.
  • Peak deaths per day: 69 deaths on April 19, 2020.
  • Total deaths by August 4, 2020: 1,898 deaths.
• Oklahoma:
  • Peak hospital resource use: April 23, 2020.
  • Peak deaths per day: 52 deaths on April 23, 2020.
  • Total deaths by August 4, 2020: 1,419 deaths.
• Oregon:
  • Peak hospital resource use: May 5, 2020.
  • Peak deaths per day: 11 deaths on May 2, 2020.
  • Total deaths by August 4, 2020: 558 deaths.
• Pennsylvania
  • Peak hospital resource use: April 18, 2020.
  • Peak deaths per day: 79 deaths on April 19, 2020.
  • Total deaths by August 4, 2020: 2,023 deaths.
• Rhode Island:
  • Peak hospital resource use: April 20, 2020.
  • Peak deaths per day: 8 deaths on April 16, 2020.
  • Total deaths by August 4, 2020: 259 deaths.
• South Carolina:
  • Peak hospital resource use: April 28, 2020.
  • Peak deaths per day: 31 deaths on April 28, 2020.
  • Total deaths by August 4, 2020: 1,095 deaths.
• South Dakota:
  • Peak hospital resource use: May 4, 2020.
  • Peak deaths per day: 6 deaths on April 29, 2020.
  • Total deaths by August 4, 2020: 204 deaths.
• Tennessee:
  • Peak hospital resource use: April 19, 2020.
  • Peak deaths per day: 165 deaths on April 20, 2020.
  • Total deaths by August 4, 2020: 3,422 deaths.
• Texas:
  • Peak hospital resource use: May 6, 2020.
  • Peak deaths per day: 161 deaths on May 6, 2020.
  • Total deaths by August 4, 2020: 6,392 deaths.
• Utah:
  • Peak hospital resource use: April 23, 2020.
  • Peak deaths per day: 18 deaths on April 23, 2020.
  • Total deaths by August 4, 2020: 580 deaths.
• Vermont:
  • Peak hospital resource use: April 9, 2020.
  • Peak deaths per day: 2 deaths on April 2, 2020.
  • Total deaths by August 4, 2020: 58 deaths.
• Virginia:
  • Peak hospital resource use: May 20, 2020.
  • Peak deaths per day: 59 deaths.
  • Total deaths by August 4, 2020: 3,152 deaths.
• Washington:
  • Peak hospital resource use: April 11, 2020.
  • Peak deaths per day: 22 deaths on April 9, 2020.
  • Total deaths by August 4, 2020: 978 deaths.
• West Virginia:
  • Peak hospital resource use: May 4, 2020.
  • Peak deaths per day: 15 deaths on May 1, 2020.
  • Total deaths by August 4, 2020: 487 deaths.
• Wisconsin:
  • Peak hospital resource use: April 27, 2020.
  • Peak deaths per day: 25 deaths on April 27, 2020.
  • Total deaths by August 4, 2020: 951 deaths.
• Wyoming:
  • Peak hospital resource use: May 4, 2020.
  • Peak deaths per day: 4 deaths on April 28, 2020.
  • Total deaths by August 4, 2020: 140 deaths.